Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 19.233983 23.229389 27.662653 32.920695 38.959729 45.651331 53.598350
2025-02-16 13.437061 18.642011 25.053200 33.413815 43.901112 56.487673 72.589433
2025-02-23 9.992229 15.517457 22.910617 33.273663 47.140179 64.750716 88.460600
2025-03-02 7.561330 13.011593 20.862295 32.572606 49.111096 71.104952 101.945960
2025-03-09 6.002792 11.346267 19.568614 32.515186 51.656642 78.104208 116.441387
2025-03-16 4.454136 9.310554 17.320195 30.648645 51.276296 80.863841 125.144675
2025-03-23 3.816653 8.653599 17.081634 31.718111 55.167021 89.750306 142.734873
2025-03-30 3.061593 7.596175 15.984066 31.227676 56.547090 94.973558 155.265692
2025-04-06 2.741414 7.310003 16.167132 32.835964 61.289477 105.405656 175.854745
2025-04-13 2.019746 5.991502 14.234320 30.535573 59.442104 105.598522 181.093954
2025-04-20 1.734598 5.574252 13.952084 31.121553 62.398259 113.374012 198.143027
2025-04-27 1.525906 5.286139 13.878602 32.066027 66.003915 122.329746 217.365747
2025-05-04 1.285918 4.887031 13.588876 32.727963 69.461991 131.723658 238.543127
2025-05-11 1.078352 4.515238 13.309413 33.410411 73.079803 141.712342 261.382333
2025-05-18 0.863823 4.035877 12.681943 33.283840 75.164395 149.205877 280.504550
2025-05-25 0.666624 3.519193 11.846407 32.583554 76.062348 154.661568 296.467372
2025-06-01 0.534477 3.165230 11.342437 32.526185 78.167181 162.292124 316.345264
2025-06-08 0.374906 2.601735 10.128971 30.659135 76.462762 162.988335 324.429235
2025-06-15 0.324611 2.483905 10.158104 31.728896 80.831337 174.897216 352.273824
2025-06-22 0.249052 2.190215 9.585047 31.238327 81.874989 180.702843 369.680775
2025-06-29 0.225340 2.158022 9.831783 32.847056 87.515681 195.360398 403.233201
2025-07-06 0.146937 1.728311 8.642765 30.546032 84.431971 193.295809 406.871662
2025-07-13 0.121814 1.619158 8.537286 31.132174 87.804216 203.792959 433.531781